A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
