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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "significant repercussions" during the summer if Putin continued blocking truce negotiations, he finally imposed major sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, through his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", large portions of the plan in reality undermine that essential autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. However, Putin's invasion is not merely about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious desire to weaken it so it no longer acts as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the accountable governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although keeping in position the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Russian forces a open path to Kyiv if he eventually decide to restart the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make additional hostilities easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their existing large number soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Notably, the initiative imposes no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the plan asserts: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding votes in Russia.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the initiative includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade other states" and to "establish in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized land in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should the international community believe Russia this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "decisive unified military response" should Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars range from vague to troubling. The initiative would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing troops on the nation's land, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from rebuilding his diminished forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Response

A separate parallel deal according to sources would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against future hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to react militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not